It’s thoughtful to call attention to the literary blogosphere. I need to search Justin’s sidebar for more blogs, because not nearly enough is on my reader. Anyway, glory for the elves.
Electronic Entertainment Expo 2016 June 12-16
Next week is E3 2016. We can look forward to lots of exciting game news. Sony is looking to steal the show again with a new Playstation version, along with the Playstation VR headset, for which they supposedly have a slew of games made already.
There are some problems with this business plan, of course, starting with the $400 price tag for the headset. We’ll have to see. If Sony knocks this out of the park, they could be dominant for a long time.
And maybe some XBOX stuff – while focusing on exclusives, exclusives, and more exclusives, of course.
So I’m liking Sony. I don’t like my failure to buy Sony (SNE) stock last month, since I knew this big surge into E3 would happen. The fact is that games are a small fraction of Sony’s business. It’s better to be in EA, ATVI, or NVDA, or even MSFT, ironically, because Azure (cloud).
Stock Market Commentary
This week Electronic Arts (EA) met resistance in pushing to new all-time highs, while Activision-Blizzard (ATVI) and NVidia (NVDA) are much further down the selloff curve.
People are locking in profits at a possible market top.
I’m up 32% with NVidia in six weeks, so it’s really difficult not to sell here. I’m comforted seeing both NVidia and Activision getting bought up intraday, but both stocks could be rolling over in advance of the market, instead of just taking breathers before another run.
Heavy selling in Activision especially has been countered by strong buying this week, resulting in dragonfly doji candlesticks that are hard to interpret. (Is the chart more at long term top, or more at a short term bottom)?
I think the overall market is “melting up” off the top, based on lack of sellers of underlying stock components. There are too many constructive patterns right now, specifically transports (IYT), small caps, energy, health care, and even Apple. Last week, a horrible jobs number on Friday decreased the expectations of a fed rate hike this month to zero percent, reducing that fear.
If the market can make this break, then subsequent sell-offs this summer will have big underlying support for the S&P index around the current level.
Brexit and the fed remain big potential spoilers in the coming weeks, and that’s an overhead of fear that has people hedging and buying protection at this level. If oil reverses and drops, that’s also a problem. If the dollar reverses and rises, that’s a problem.
In the past week, I’ve been a buyer of Tahoe Resources (TAHO), a gold and silver miner, and Visa (V).
Today, Visa was called out on CNBC fast money as a top pick. I was a happy kitty, having bought it on Monday. I wanted to buy something that supports the thesis that the market is going off the top, and I like a breakout on Visa.
If the market hits the skids with Visa bouncing sharp the other way, I’m back out of Visa. I’m also possibly out of Blizzard. I like Tahoe Resources for Gold and Silver if the U.S. dollar continues in decline. That’s a big topic, and even the professionals today have wildly conflicting ideas and opinions.
I’ve been fascinated with silver since I was a child, and so my online moniker, Silverangel. Unlike gold, silver is an important component in industry, especially solar panels. Solar power is projected to grow enormously in the coming decades.
I’ve been watching the Solar ETF (TAN) very closely as one of the last components of my little long-term portfolio. The chart is forming a very solid, curving bottom, a tanned virtual reality beauty, really.
The problems with TAN? It historically trades with oil (a very complicated topic), and oil is toppy, bolstered right now by geopolitical issues.
TAN in recent months has actually underperformed oil, with solar companies having a slew of problems, including one flirting with bankruptcy (SUNE), and others crushed by egregious protectionist state politics in the U.S. favoring the energy establishment in Arizona and Nevada, for example.
Even solid Chinese solars like Jinko have had disappointing results, despite China’s massive pollution problems, and/or have joined other Chinese companies in requesting delisting in the U.S. to go back to China.
So all of these issues with specific companies are why you buy an ETF like TAN.
Playing LotRO is not consistent with personal productivity. I know that. So I’m looking at ways to scale back, even as my art and programming return slowly from a near-frozen state. I completed four game scene drawings last weekend, and painted two during the last two nights.
My goal in LotRO was a max level Elf Warden, but the server glitches, packet loss, and high ping are annoying for a class that requires so many key presses with perfect timing. Meanwhile, my Elf Rune-Keeper is ten levels higher and has 21 stat tomes. I don’t know.
And that’s all for this week. Happy gaming, and thanks for reading. I’ll hope to see you virtually at the E3 coverage!