Category Archives: Video Game Stocks

MMO Purgatory, Stock Market, & Other Updates

The Game Situation

Last month I re-subbed to WoW Classic. I reached level 50ish and called it quits again. The grind is brutal, basically. Even though I’m playing a mage!

When I first started playing Classic at launch, I was thinking – these kids today aren’t going to make it! They don’t have the patience!

I just assumed I would be able to do this without much problem. I was too overconfident.

Blizzard is also a complication. I’m not such a fan these days. I’m not so thrilled to give them $15/month, for the main game. Classic is just a perk. I’m not actually using what I’m paying for. Feels weird man.

I tried Bethesda’s Doom. It doesn’t have the feel of the original, to me. There were no swarms of enemies in the original Doom.

If you faced 2 enemies at once in the original Doom, you needed to be careful. If you faced 3+ at once, that was a big battle. There was also more dreadfulness and suspense, because each enemy was more deadly.

Or at least, that’s the way I remember it.

I’ve also been playing Dragon’s Lair, the classic arcade game on Steam. I was doing well until I ran into a bugged room that has been bugged for 2 years, apparently, and another sequence that appears bugged because it isn’t showing the direction hints. So I have no idea what to do.

So I’m searching for a game, as usual. I don’t know what to play. The big Baldur’s Gate 3 gameplay reveal was earlier this week.

It was OK. It didn’t blow me away. It looked a lot like NWN2 to me. Other people say it is more like DOS3, because Larian studios is the developer.

U.S. Stock Market

The U.S. Stock Market crashed 10% this week. The consensus is that the crashing is far from over. There are a bewildering array of problems caused by the spread of the coronavirus.

For example .. no, I’m not even going to get started.

I sold 50% of my portfolio on the bounce first thing Monday morning. So I’m doing fine! This afternoon I nibbled back at Netflix (NFLX)and Akamai (AKAM).

I’ve been watching Akamai for a while. They had a great earnings report. In a world of major teleconferencing rollout, Akamai should benefit, as well as from increased home internet usage.

Netflix seems like a no-brainer, but of course it was sold off severely along with all overpriced tech stocks. How can Netflix not do very well in a world where everyone is staying home, schools are being shut down, nothing to do etc.?

The thing is, all of these tech stocks are bundled up into ETFs, such as total market ETFs, S&P ETFs, etc.. And the biggest tech companies are a large percent of the market now, like 20%?

So, as always but more than ever before, the broad market is much more important than an individual stock.

I also like Tencent (TCEHY), but that was a stock I took profits in on Monday. I had way too much of the stock. So I plan to start rebuilding my position at some point.

I also sold NVidia on Monday, because of large profits I wanted to turn into cash. Today an analyst said NVidia should do well regardless of the virus because of cloud and gaming. People jumped in today to run up NVidia!

Well, the cloud needs businesses doing well to need more cloud capacity. If businesses start sending people home, hunkering down worried about financial conditions, etc. the cloud is going to get hurt.

The call on Nvidia today, while notable, or else I wouldn’t note it, seems pretty suspect to me. It caused a bunch of chip stocks to do well today. Really? I think Americans just love chips. I’ll get back into NVidia at some point, but I’ll be waiting a bit on the chip stocks.

The virus is going to get far, far worse. I can see the market dropping another 10% or 20%. I can also see Trump making more of an effort to fix the stock market than fix the completely incompetent and failed response by the American government to the arrival of the virus.

So. I sold my portfolio down to like 75% cash at about 3% from the top, and I started nibbling a bit at the down 10% mark today, on companies that the virus shouldn’t hurt so much.

Of course, if I’m dead from virus it won’t matter. I’ve already been sick for the last month from something.

Personal Project

I’ve been working hard in the last 2 months on my game’s first dungeon. (Game art shown above.) The beta playtesting version of The Cursed Tombs is online here.

(Please note that if you play from this link, and you don’t have a saved code, you will do very poorly as a default non-statted character.)

The title of the dungeon is pretty generic, but it’s just the first entry level dungeon? I learned a lot while making this dungeon. Developed far more tricks and techniques than from any other effort previously.

So that’s good. Now I just need to get healthy so I can get back to working at full strength.

Feb. Updates:

Illustrated the first Owl River dungeon, approx. 70 pieces of art in 1 month despite having a virus and working full time.

Added a fourth fight and two more rooms.

Some playtesting, still needs Spanish translation.

Redesigned character panels to be more like a familiar classic character sheet.

Added another gear slot “Jewelry” slot, to go with the previous “Accessory” slot. Jewelry is now a separate and equal category to Accessory, which includes misc. trinkets, tomes, magical belt buckles, whatever.

Recruited a new dungeon developer, who is working on a second dungeon.

Planning and plotting second chapter of main storyline.

January 2020: Updates/Fixes

A3: More bug fixes, added Seelie Court rep. Archmistress Glumskayah now has wings? Not sure about the wing thing. I wanted to make her more devilish and less human, basically. I have a big problem with all of my non-human NPC’s managing to look lamely human. More dialog and options. Fixed removal of Learaiche’s wand.

A4: A few minor bug fixes, dialog cuts and improvements, added a skip option for theatre talking.

A5: Several bug fixes, broken conversation lines. Preloads.

A6: more bugs fixed, extended ending, new longest, most complicated module by far. Preloads.

D1: First dungeon is in development.

Tarot Training– added preloads for tarot cards

French Club – fixed more bugs, broken dialogue, Spanish language

Connor library – edited, translated.

Help – another edit through the dialogs to update for diplomacy changes

Library – fixed map, reduced high rate of special encounters prior in place for testing

Olivia Munn Does Psylocke, PureFunds Does A Video Game ETF

I’ve been a fan of Olivia Munn since Attack Of The Show on the G4 channel years ago, so I’m thrilled to see her playing as an anti-heroine in X-Men Apocalypse, scheduled to release in theaters on May 27th.

X-Men is the only superhero series I really watch. It’s no coincidence that X-Men (despite the manly title) has the best portrayal of women heroes.

I’m not a Jennifer Lawrence fan, but she molds well to Mystique. Sophie Turner seems strange as Jean Grey/Phoenix. Where is the fierce independence? The fire? I guess she is supposed to change, but Famke Janssen is a forbidding follow.

I really hope Olivia Munn somehow steals the show. She’s headlining on Stephen Colbert this Thursday night.

GAMR: A New Gaming ETF

The kitty asked, and now it’s a reality. I’ve been watching closely to see if the U.S. stock market rally dies in a fire, or manages to break out of the confining downtrend line like China, which loosened margin restrictions last week, as if actively wanting to encourage another bubble.

Another mini-investment point is approaching, either way it goes.

The PureFunds Video Game Tech ETF has a ticker symbol of GAMR. The GAMR ETF gives you investment exposure to companies like Square-Enix, NCSoft, Konami, and Glu Mobile, as well as the usual suspects.

The ETF is doing very well so far, but the daily trading volume is tiny. The expense ratio is also enormous, but that somewhat goes hand in hand with international exposure. I’m not sure how to approach this.

I noticed the ETF incorporates Microsoft and NVidia in only token amounts, which seems like a bad idea. Does anyone have solid knowledge of new, low-volume ETFs? I’ve researched this before, but struggled to understand the implications.

The PureFunds HACK ETF (Cybersecurity) seems to have a solid following and volume now, more than when it started. Will the video game ETF build up the same way? Is it a good idea to get in early? This kitty just isn’t sure, but I’m here to report the news, so there you go.

Happy Easter, and happy joystick-fiddling. I’m currently a level 44 Miqo’te Summoner in FFXIV. I reluctantly subscribed for one month past my free period. It’s more grinding than I really have time for.

More Reading:

Olivia Munn explains why she loves Psylocke.

Video Game Investment Watch ~ April, 2015

stock chartThe stock market in general is struggling right now, which means a good time to buy might be coming. Even the high-flying Electronic Arts has been “basing” in recent weeks with the lukewarm reception of Battlefield:Hardline.

The future of video games has never been brighter, and the stocks of video game companies are reflecting that. Blizzard is up about 20% in the last year. EA is up about 60%. Sony is up 50% in just the last 3 months, after getting sold off due to the hacking scandal.

If you’re a gamer, you’re probably good with figuring addition math. It doesn’t take an Eve Online player to look at these numbers and think this might be worth looking into, especially if you’re a young person.

It takes scarcely a few hours of your time to set up an account with an online broker and transfer money from your bank account (Or at least, it should. If it doesn’t, find another one.) I’m endorsing TD Ameritrade.

(I can also refer you if you want to go to the trouble to help me win a $50 referral bonus in exchange for this blog post – just leave a comment with your first and last name, and I’ll get your email address to complete the invitation, but no one else will).

I haven’t killed the research on this. I’m mainly typing research notes from this week.

Blizzard (symbol: ATVI)

Blizzard’s stock has given a healthy 20% return in the last year, but has gone nowhere for the last eight months. This year Activision has the new Call of Duty:Black Ops coming, along with the new online Guitar Hero Live next fall. Blizzard is working on Heroes of the Storm (in beta), which is getting mixed reviews.

If it’s successful, it could be really big, and since when has a Blizzard game not been successful?

Blizzard may also have a “catalyst” for its stock coming in the form of another game announcement. Is everyone from the cancelled Titan project securely re-distributed to Overwatch and elsewhere, or is something more in the works? This could send the stock breaking out.

I’m really tempted to buy some ATVI, even though I’m personally not a huge Blizzard fan. Blizzard is looking really strong with its games on Twitch, maybe with a stronger popular sentiment than the market is discounting right now.

Electronic Arts (symbol: EA)

They’ve got FIFA, Madden, NBA, Sims, Need for Speed, Dragon Age, and SWTOR. Electronic Arts has returned an astonishing 60% on an investment in the last year.

In recent weeks, like Blizzard, EA stock has been basing, which means it may be poised to offer a good buying opportunity, either by breaking out to the upside, or also by breaking down. The chart could definitely break down.

EA seems like the best bet on the future of RPGs with Bioware in the house. Its big upcoming title looks like Star Wars: Battlefront, launching with the new Star Wars movie from Disney next winter. It looks like a new Mirror’s Edge is coming as well.

I struggle ethically to invest in EA because they’ve built their profits and soaring stock price on the back of microtransactions that I hate. I haven’t purchased Dragon Age: Inquisition yet because EA will only sell it on Origin and not Steam.

This is because they’d rather pocket the profits themselves and more importantly force customers into their platform instead of giving them a choice. I use Steam on PC, so I’m not buying any EA games. Origin is literally the only reason I never look to buy EA games, because I look on Steam. It’s my Facebook for video games.

Still. EA is the king, and it’s often the best play to put your chips on the king, especially when the stock market is struggling, like it is this year.

My Picks: Nvidia And Akamai (symbol: NVDA and symbol: AKAM)

I bought into Nvidia and Akamai this week. Like Steam (Valve), I like companies who are independent fighters and not greedy giants. I’m so wary to bet on software companies also, for all sorts of reasons. In general, the short history of tech shows that software gets replaced with better technology (i.e. cloud, Android, and open source.)

Meanwhile, many gaming companies are private or on a foreign market. You can’t buy into Zenimax. You can’t buy a video game ETF–yet. (An ETF is an exchange-traded fund, a “stock basket” containing a bunch of stocks on a common theme, which reduces your risk drastically for any single stock. You can buy these just like a stock at any broker, and some you can buy into for free.)

NVIDIA: Currently the PC market is in a decline, and few think it will recover soon, if ever. Microsoft and Intel are really suffering because of this, and it shows in their stock prices. This is a good time to go with a contrarian strategy on PCs–buying when everyone else has sold.

NVIDIA has catalysts not just in the video game industry, but also through a new major initiative with Dell against Apple. The release of DirectX 12 this summer may also be a catalyst. Most of Dx12 will be supported as a software upgrade for existing cards, but some features will need a new video card. These are likely the high-performance features that gamers are most interested in.

AMD is also a solid contrarian play. They have been mostly beaten by Intel in the CPU chips, but are hanging on with their graphics cards. Their stock has been crushed with their failures. On the other hand, I was willing to spend more to get an Intel CPU on my last gaming computer, but I tried to scrimp with a Radeon card. That was a mistake.

My installation of the AMD Catalyst Control Center has been broken forever and won’t run, just like on my last PC. I have no way to adjust or troubleshoot my card. My card also has display issues and glitches with two screens, so I don’t run two screens anymore. The fan also has had problems, but I think that’s the third-party manufacturer. Next time it will be Intel and Nvidia, only.

AKAMAI: Akamai is one of the world’s largest online content delivery services, and a cloud services provider. They advertise themselves as a game content deliverer, and they’ve had some success in recent years in delivering content for gaming companies like Turbine, Nintendo, and Sony. They have recently worked on being a security provider.

Akamai is a bit of a “greedy giant”. They have waged legal war on competitors, and in at least one case (Limelight Networks), they have failed. Limelight is another opportunity, and this much smaller company has had big insider buying in the last quarter even after the stock has surged, which is supposed to be a big buy signal.

I bought $200 of Akamai originally for $2 a share in the market crash of 2001. I sold half at $20, and the rest at $40. So this stock is a long-time favorite. I’m starting to buy in again at $70 after a base, although I’m really tempted to try for the same rags to riches story with Limelight.

Akamai’s stock chart is a stair-step show-me pattern. When they report solid earnings, everyone buys, otherwise everyone is wary. This is partly because Akamai has done business with Apple, who is currently the world’s greatest tech company by doing chips themselves and cutting out Intel and Nvidia from the equation. Apple is currently working on reducing the need for Akamai, which is bad.

As of recent weeks, Apple is still going to their major competitor, Samsung, for displays, though. Go figure.

On the positive side, Akamai specializes in cloud and delivering video, both of which are huge future growth areas. I’m also not a big believer in the current hot, overpriced internet security companies. From what I’m reading, I think big companies would rather go for a security solution as part of the package from their content delivery or networking partner, who is the expert on their own systems.

My Strategy

So what’s my buying strategy? Right now I’m averaging in. I’ll buy a little, preferably on “dips” in the market, over time. I always sell if a stock loses 7%. It’s my rule. That way, all I need is to pick and hold one double (+100%) to make up for maybe 12 losses adjusted for fees. Surely even a stupid kitty can handle that.

So if you love video games, consider putting your money where your joystick is. Don’t make my mistake and wait. If your favorite company does well, you profit, and you’re basically getting your games for free, instead of having your money sitting in a worthless bank account.

If you don’t profit, this blog post was in no way an endorsement of any of these companies, or professional advice.

Good luck, and don’t forget to buy -and- hold until the 7% rule is broken. I got the 7% rule from the classic book title shown below by William Neil. Here are a few golden rules from that book, rules that I failed to follow when I first tried managing my own portfolio years ago:

Buy on the way up, not the way down. Buy more only after the stock has risen.

Buy when stocks are near high, not when they look cheap.

Always sell quickly for 7-8% loss.

Learn to read charts.

More Reading:

How To Make Money In Stocks – William J. Neil (Can’t link to Amazon on this free hosting. Enjoy.)